Deal or No Deal?

15/06/26 08:01
Screenshot 2026-06-10 at 9.18.42 AMJune 15, 2026 (Vol. 20 No. 22) I’m sorry. I am skeptical about the so-called “peace deal” between the United States and Iran. After three months of war and economic disruptions, what has really been accomplished? I’d argue that, if anything, things are worse.




Yes, traffic, specifically oil tankers, will resume through the Strait of Hormuz. That’s good news to the world’s economy. However, it is just a return to the status quo that existed before Donald Trump, at the urging of Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, launched his ill-advised and unconstitutional war.



We can also boast that we have seriously degraded Iran’s military capabilities, However, can’t Iran make the same claim? After the 15 weeks of war, U.S. has seriously depleted its munitions stockpile. At the same time, American intelligence sources have indicated that Iran’s military capabilities remain formidable. It is also important to remember that in the entire history of warfare, aerial bombing campaigns have never single-handedly won a war. If the goal is to remove Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, that will require boots-on-the-ground - something the neither the president nor the American people seem willing to tolerate.



It is certainly true that the Americans have forced Iran into a cease fire and nuclear negotiations. But can’t the reverse of that statement also be true? Trump’s war, along with his reckless tariff policies, have severely damaged the U.S. economy. And if economists snd oil industry analysts are to be believed, a sudden cessation of hostilities will not return consumer prices to their pre-war levels in the new future, if ever. But that’s OK: Trump says he likes inflation.



Once this agreement is signed, a 60-day negotiation presumably period begins. If Iran hasn't given up its uranium stockpile by then, then, presumably, the United States will resume military action. There’s a flaw in this scenario: Iran knows how to read a calendar. The end of the 60-days coincides with the start of the fall midterm election campaigns. Iran knows that Trump and the Republicans are in deep trouble. The one good thing to come out of this so-called agreement is that oil prices are falling to pre-war levels. But that has happened each of the 37 previous times Trump has indicated that peace is near. Is the treat of renewed hostilities real? Will Trump risk another spike in prices as the campaign begins in earnest? And will Republican members Congress, already saddled with Trump as an albatross around their necks, stand by their man?



Then there’s the money. Tehran says the 60-day negotiating period will only begin after the U.S. starts disbursing billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets. However, the U.S. says no money will be returned or any economic sanctions lifted until Washington gets what it wants. For that reason, there’s a better than even chance this so-called agreement won’t be signed. There’s also a chance that domestic political pressures will force TACO Trump to cave into Iran’s demands.



The wild card is this scenario is Israel. It was Netanyahu who goaded General Liesenhower into this war. It has been reported that the Israeli Prime Minister is unhappy with this so-called settlement. It will not stop Israel from attacking the Iranian-backed Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Nor does it stop Hezbollah from lobbing missiles into Israel. As far as Israel is concerned, the agreement changes nothing.



When this war started, the Trump administration could not articulate its rationale. After 15-weeks of bumbling and stumbling, it has settled on the message point that Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. I agree with that statement. But I also would like to point out that the goal of a nuclear-free is not necessarily advanced by this agreement. That is contingent upon Iran’s giving up that uranium stockpile. I just don’t see that happening. Iran doesn’t trust Donald Trump, who by breaking the deal Iran reached with President Obama, forced them to resume their nuclear ambitions. Frankly, they also see President Trump the same way a majority of Americans see him, as an old, possibly dying and definitely senile shell of a man. Iran’s best play may be to string this out for as long as it can. As previously stated, Iran knows how to read a calendar.



Here’s the basic truth: We are no better off at the end of the first 15 weeks of Trump’s war. In fact, things are much worse. The only tangible result of this agreement is that the Strait of Hormuz may be reopening - returning it to its original condition before Trump’s actions forced it closed. Nothing has been accomplished by this war. Much has been lost. The cost in lives, national treasure and human suffering is not worth it.
With the World Cup tournament already underway, Trump may believe that this so-called agreement makes him worthy of another FIFA Peace Prize. However, Trump shouldn't get credit for putting out the fire he started. That's it for now. Fear the Turtle.