The Republican Conundrum
03/01/23 08:30
Jan 3, 2023 (Vol. 17 No. 2) - As the new Congress convenes today, some of the faces may be different, but nothing much will have changed. The midterm elections did not significantly alter Washington's political equation, although Republicans have gained nominal control of the House of Representatives. I say nominal because the Republicans may be in the majority, but I seriously doubt that they will be in control. Kevin McCarthy has sold his soul to become Speaker. And as Paul Ryan and John Boehner before him discovered, his caucus is an ungovernable and undisciplined clown car where numerous factions are steering in different directions. Many of them are members of the Sedition Caucus, an angry and unprincipled group who ignored their oaths to preserve and protect the Constitution and instead tried to overthrow the expressed will of 81 million of their fellow citizens. As I write this, there is no guarantee that McCarthy can muster the 218 votes he needs. Even if he does, he has already made concessions that will cripple his speakership. Because of the GOP's failure to win the Senate - Democrats actually gained a seat - there isn't a lot the Republicans will be able to accomplish legislatively by themselves - other than waste time and money on a silly investigation of Hunter Biden's laptop. The Republicans also start this session rudderless, as their "North Star," the Discount of Mar-a-Largo, is about to go supernova in the wake of a wide range of criminal investigations. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who hasn't attempted to hide his distain for the former President, will be interesting to watch. He may be more willing to work in a bipartisan manner on some issues with President Biden. McConnell is more secure within his caucus than McCarthy is in his, so don't expect him to throw McCarthy a lifeline. That will put the new, and likely temporary Speaker with a conundrum. If he tries to work with the Democrats, he risks ouster by the lunatic fringe of his own party. If he doesn't, he will likely alienate moderate Republicans and Independents who made it clear in November that they are not interested in a continuing congressional stalemate. This is not to suggest that the Democrats are without significant problems of their own that could derail them in the next election. But the Democrats come into this new Congress with two things the GOP does not - party unity and a recent record of significant legislative and electoral success. The Republican Party's failure to realize their projected "Red Wave" last November spells significant challenges for them as they look ahead to November 2024. The battle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party has begun. That's it for now. Fear the Turtle!